Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic in France Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exacted a heavy toll in France during March and April 2020. Quarantine measures were effective in reducing transmission by 84%, and some relaxation of social isolation was expected in May. Salje et al. fit transmission models for the epidemic in France to hospital admissions. The authors forecast that 2.9 million people will have been infected by 11 May, representing 4.4% of the population—a value inadequate for herd immunity. Daily critical care hospitalizations should reduce from several hundreds to tens of cases, but control will remain a delicate balancing act. Any relaxation of lockdown in France will have to be carefully controlled and monitored to avoid undermining more optimistic forecasts. Science , this issue p. 208

Keywords

Affiliated Institutions

• Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique FR
• Inserm FR
• University of Cambridge GB
• Sorbonne Université FR
• Université Sorbonne Nouvelle FR
• Institut Pierre Louis d‘Épidémiologie et de Santé Publique FR
• Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé FR
• Santé Publique France FR
• Centre de recherche en Epidémiologie et Santé des Populations FR
• Institut Pasteur FR
• Johns Hopkins University US
• Université Paris-Saclay FR
• Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines FR
• Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers FR

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