Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Nicholas G. Davies , Sam Abbott , Rosanna C. Barnard , Nicholas G. Davies , Sam Abbott , Rosanna C. Barnard , Christopher I Jarvis , Adam J. Kucharski , James D Munday , Carl A. B. Pearson , Timothy Russell , Damien C. Tully , Alex Washburne , Tom Wenseleers , Amy Gimma , William Waites , Kerry LM Wong , Kevin van Zandvoort , Justin D. Silverman , Karla Diaz‐Ordaz , Ruth H. Keogh , Rosalind M. Eggo , Sebastian Funk , Mark Jit , Katherine E. Atkins , W. John Edmunds
2021 Science 2,553 citations

Abstract

UK variant transmission Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The UK variant B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) has many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, Davies et al. characterized the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United Kingdom. The authors found that the variant is 43 to 90% more transmissible than the predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for a change in disease severity, although enhanced transmission will lead to higher incidence and more hospital admissions. Large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur after the easing of control measures, and it may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to control the epidemic. Science , this issue p. eabg3055

Keywords

Transmissibility (structural dynamics)Lineage (genetic)Transmission (telecommunications)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Incidence (geometry)VirologyVirusCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Coronavirus2019-20 coronavirus outbreakBiologyMutationSars virusMedicineDiseaseOutbreakGeneticsGeneInfectious disease (medical specialty)Computer scienceInternal medicine

MeSH Terms

AdolescentAdultAgedAged80 and overBasic Reproduction NumberCOVID-19COVID-19 VaccinesChildChildPreschoolCommunicable Disease ControlEnglandEuropeFemaleHumansInfantMaleMiddle AgedModelsTheoreticalMutationSARS-CoV-2Severity of Illness IndexSocioeconomic FactorsUnited StatesViral LoadYoung Adult

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Publication Info

Year
2021
Type
article
Volume
372
Issue
6538
Citations
2553
Access
Closed

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Nicholas G. Davies, Sam Abbott, Rosanna C. Barnard et al. (2021). Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science , 372 (6538) . https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055

Identifiers

DOI
10.1126/science.abg3055
PMID
33658326
PMCID
PMC8128288

Data Quality

Data completeness: 90%