James D Munday

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts

Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will...

Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 95 333 confirmed cases as of March 5, 2020. Understanding the early transmission dy...

The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, and Health Data Research UK.

Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

The COVID-19 pandemic has shown a markedly low proportion of cases among children^1-4. Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower su...

Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020: a modelling study

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

UK variant transmission Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The UK variant B.1.1.7 (al...