Abrupt Climate Change

Abstract

Large, abrupt, and widespread climate changes with major impacts have occurred repeatedly in the past, when the Earth system was forced across thresholds. Although abrupt climate changes can occur for many reasons, it is conceivable that human forcing of climate change is increasing the probability of large, abrupt events. Were such an event to recur, the economic and ecological impacts could be large and potentially serious. Unpredictability exhibited near climate thresholds in simple models shows that some uncertainty will always be associated with projections. In light of these uncertainties, policy-makers should consider expanding research into abrupt climate change, improving monitoring systems, and taking actions designed to enhance the adaptability and resilience of ecosystems and economies.

Keywords

Affiliated Institutions

• University of Southampton GB
• University of Chicago US
• University of Arizona US
• National Oceanography Centre GB
• Pennsylvania State University US
• Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory US
• Yale University US
• Scripps Institution of Oceanography US
• University of California, San Diego US
• Columbia University US
• University of Bern CH
• Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences US
• Goddard Institute for Space Studies US
• University of Washington US
• University of Colorado Boulder US

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