Lawrence H. Summers

Good policy or good luck?

Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation

Prompted by the 20th anniversary of the 1993 World Development Report, a Lancet Commission revisited the case for investment in health and developed a new investment framework t...

The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets

The authors present a model of portfolio allocation by noise traders with incorrect expectations about return variances. For such misperceptions, noise traders who do not affect...

Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?

ABSTRACT This paper examines the power of statistical tests commonly used to evaluate the efficiency of speculative markets. It shows that these tests have very low power. Marke...

Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence

This note uses information on a sample of sixteen OECD countries to assess the relationship between central bank independence and macroeconomic performance. As previous work sug...

Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem

European unemployment has been steadily increasing for the last 15 years and is expected to remain very high for many years to come.In thi5 paper, we argue that this fact implie...

Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets

The authors present a simple overlapping generations model of an asset market in which irrational noise traders with erroneous stochastic beliefs both affect prices and earn hig...