Hal R. Arkes

Eliminating the hindsight bias.

Those who consider the likelihood of an event after it has occurred exaggerate their likelihood of having been able to predict that event in advance. We attempted to eliminate t...

Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task

Competence and the overjustification effect

Costs and benefits of judgment errors: Implications for debiasing.

Some authors questioned the ecological validity of judgmental biases demonstrated in the laboratory. One objection to these demonstrations is that evolutionary pressures would h...

The psychology of sunk cost