Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Abstract

Abstract The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases—including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika—is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus . The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.

Keywords

Affiliated Institutions

• Fudan University CN
• Harvard University US
• The University of Melbourne AU
• London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine GB
• Université Libre de Bruxelles BE
• Boston Children's Hospital US
• National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention CN
• Oxford Research Group GB
• Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation US
• Schaffner (Switzerland) CH
• University of California, Davis US
• University of Oxford GB
• Flowminder Foundation SE
• Ministério da Saúde BR
• University of Southampton GB
• Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique FR
• Avia-GIS (Belgium) BE
• RTI International US
• Central South University CN
• European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control SE
• ETH Zurich CH
• World Health Organization Regional Office for the Americas US
• Institut Pasteur FR
• University of Washington US
• Colorado State University US
• University of Notre Dame US

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