Abstract
Any significant activity of forecasting involves a large component of judgment, intuition, and educated guesswork. Indeed, the opinions of experts are the source of many technological, political, and social forecasts. Opinions and intuitions play an important part even where the forecasts are obtained by a mathematical model or a simulation. Intuitive judgments enter in the choice of the variables that are considered in such models, the impact factors that are assigned to them, and the initial values that are assumed to hold. The critical role of intuition in all varieties of forecasting calls for an analysis of the factors that limit the accuracy of expert judgments, and for the development of procedures designed to improve the quality of these judgments. …
Keywords
IntuitionComputer sciencePsychologyManagement scienceEconometricsEconomicsCognitive science
Affiliated Institutions
Related Publications
Methods For Combining Experts' Probability Assessments
This article reviews statistical techniques for combining multiple probability distributions. The framework is that of a decision maker who consults several experts regarding so...
Judgment Misguided
Abstract People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as ru...
User Response Data: The Potential for Errors and Biases
Surveys that require users to evaluate or make judgments about information systems and their effect on specific work activities can produce misleading results if respondents do ...
Subjective bayesian methods for rule-based inference systems
The general problem of drawing inferences from uncertain or incomplete evidence has invited a variety of technical approaches, some mathematically rigorous and some largely info...
Decision-Making Studies in Patient Management
Abstract Decision analysis provides a method to help the physician choose a course of action consistent with his personal judgments, to relate his preferences to costs, and to a...
Publication Info
- Year
- 1982
- Type
- book-chapter
- Pages
- 414-421
- Citations
- 1142
- Access
- Closed
External Links
Social Impact
Altmetric
PlumX Metrics
Social media, news, blog, policy document mentions
Citation Metrics
1142
OpenAlex
Cite This
Daniel Kahneman,
Amos Tversky
(1982).
Intuitive prediction: Biases and corrective procedures.
Cambridge University Press eBooks
, 414-421.
https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9780511809477.031
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1017/cbo9780511809477.031