Daniel Kahneman

Well-being : the foundations of hedonic psychology

Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability

On the psychology of prediction.

In this paper, we explore the rules that determine intuitive predictions and judgments of confidence and contrast these rules to the normative principles of statistical predicti...

Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness

Belief in the law of small numbers.

Reports that people have erroneous intuitions about the laws of chance. In particular, they regard a sample randomly drawn from a population as highly representative, I.e., simi...

Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choice...