Abstract

From 29 to 31 January 2020, a total of 565 Japanese citizens were evacuated from Wuhan, China on three chartered flights. All passengers were screened upon arrival in Japan for symptoms consistent with novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection and tested for presence of the virus. Assuming that the mean detection window of the virus can be informed by the mean serial interval (estimated at 7.5 days), the ascertainment rate of infection was estimated at 9.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.0, 20.0). This indicates that the incidence of infection in Wuhan can be estimated at 20,767 infected individuals, including those with asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic infections. The infection fatality risk (IFR)—the actual risk of death among all infected individuals—is therefore 0.3% to 0.6%, which may be comparable to Asian influenza pandemic of 1957–1958.

Keywords

MedicineCase fatality rateConfidence intervalAsymptomaticCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)PandemicIncidence (geometry)2019-20 coronavirus outbreakCoronavirusInfection rateVirologyEstimationDemographyInternal medicineEmergency medicineEpidemiologySurgeryOutbreakInfectious disease (medical specialty)Disease

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Publication Info

Year
2020
Type
editorial
Volume
9
Issue
2
Pages
419-419
Citations
326
Access
Closed

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Hiroshi Nishiura, T. Kobayashi, Yichi Yang et al. (2020). The Rate of Underascertainment of Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Infection: Estimation Using Japanese Passengers Data on Evacuation Flights. Journal of Clinical Medicine , 9 (2) , 419-419. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020419

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DOI
10.3390/jcm9020419