Abstract
A representation and interpretation of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve obtained by the "rating" method, or by mathematical predictions based on patient characteristics, is presented. It is shown that in such a setting the area represents the probability that a randomly chosen diseased subject is (correctly) rated or ranked with greater suspicion than a randomly chosen non-diseased subject. Moreover, this probability of a correct ranking is the same quantity that is estimated by the already well-studied nonparametric Wilcoxon statistic. These two relationships are exploited to (a) provide rapid closed-form expressions for the approximate magnitude of the sampling variability, i.e., standard error that one uses to accompany the area under a smoothed ROC curve, (b) guide in determining the size of the sample required to provide a sufficiently reliable estimate of this area, and (c) determine how large sample sizes should be to ensure that one can statistically detect differences in the accuracy of diagnostic techniques.
Keywords
Receiver operating characteristicStatisticsNonparametric statisticsMedicineRanking (information retrieval)Sample size determinationStatisticWilcoxon signed-rank testSampling (signal processing)Sample (material)MathematicsArtificial intelligenceComputer science
Related Publications
Comparing the Areas under Two or More Correlated Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves: A Nonparametric Approach
Methods of evaluating and comparing the performance of diagnostic tests are of increasing importance as new tests are developed and marketed. When a test is based on an observed...
The theory of signal detectability
The problem of signal detectability treated in this paper is the following: Suppose an observer is given a voltage varying with time during a prescribed observation interval and...
Construction of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves when Disease Verification Is Subject to Selection Bias
The estimates of ROC curves, which are frequently used in the assessment of diagnostic tests, may be biased if the sample is restricted to subjects whose disease status has been...
Cerebrospinal fluid biomarker signature in Alzheimer's disease neuroimaging initiative subjects
Abstract Objective Develop a cerebrospinal fluid biomarker signature for mild Alzheimer's disease (AD) in Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) subjects. Methods Am...
Computed tomography versus ultrasound of the adrenal gland: a prospective study.
A prospective study of the accuracy of computed tomography (CT) and ultrasound was undertaken in 112 consecutive patients with suspected adrenal disease. CT had a sensitivity of...
Publication Info
- Year
- 1982
- Type
- article
- Volume
- 143
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 29-36
- Citations
- 21038
- Access
- Closed
External Links
Social Impact
Altmetric
PlumX Metrics
Social media, news, blog, policy document mentions
Citation Metrics
21038
OpenAlex
Cite This
J A Hanley,
Barbara J. McNeil
(1982).
The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve..
Radiology
, 143
(1)
, 29-36.
https://doi.org/10.1148/radiology.143.1.7063747
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1148/radiology.143.1.7063747