Abstract

A cluster of pneumonia cases linked to a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was reported by China in late December 2019. Reported case incidence has now reached the hundreds, but this is likely an underestimate. As of 24 January 2020, with reports of thirteen exportation events, we estimate the cumulative incidence in China at 5502 cases (95% confidence interval: 3027, 9057). The most plausible number of infections is in the order of thousands, rather than hundreds, and there is a strong indication that untraced exposures other than the one in the epidemiologically linked seafood market in Wuhan have occurred.

Keywords

MedicineIncidence (geometry)Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Transmission (telecommunications)Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Confidence intervalChinaCoronavirus2019-20 coronavirus outbreakPneumoniaCluster (spacecraft)DemographyBetacoronavirusCumulative incidenceEnvironmental healthOutbreakVirologyInternal medicineDiseaseGeography

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Publication Info

Year
2020
Type
editorial
Volume
9
Issue
2
Pages
330-330
Citations
506
Access
Closed

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Hiroshi Nishiura, Sung-mok Jung, Natalie M. Linton et al. (2020). The Extent of Transmission of Novel Coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020. Journal of Clinical Medicine , 9 (2) , 330-330. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm9020330

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DOI
10.3390/jcm9020330