Abstract
Abstract For US data over 1950–1985 the stochastic components of GNP growth and the unemployment rate appear to be stationary, and there is substantial feedback between these variables. The unconditional mean rate of unemployment in a joint model thus provides a natural benchmark in discussions of the ‘business cycle’. A bivariate VAR model is used to describe output–unemployment dynamics, to estimate the degree of persistence of output innovations, and to decompose output into trend and cycle. The bivariate results are interpreted using a restricted VAR and it is shown that a closely related cyclical measure can be obtained directly from the Okun's Law equation.
Keywords
Bivariate analysisUnemploymentBusiness cycleEconometricsOkun's lawEconomicsUnemployment rateBenchmark (surveying)Natural rate of unemploymentPersistence (discontinuity)Measure (data warehouse)Dynamics (music)MathematicsStatisticsMacroeconomicsComputer science
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Publication Info
- Year
- 1989
- Type
- article
- Volume
- 4
- Issue
- 3
- Pages
- 213-237
- Citations
- 190
- Access
- Closed
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Cite This
George W. Evans
(1989).
Output and unemployment dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985.
Journal of Applied Econometrics
, 4
(3)
, 213-237.
https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3950040302
Identifiers
- DOI
- 10.1002/jae.3950040302