Modelling the Environmental Niche of Plants: Implications for Plant Community Response to Elevated CO2 Levels.

Abstract

No simple natural gradients in CO2 concentration exist for testing predictions about changes in plant communities in response to elevated CO2. However indirect effects of CO2 via temperature increases can be tested by reference to natural analogues. Physiologists, vegetation modellers of climate change and community ecologists assume very different temperature responses for plants. Physiologists often assume a skewed non-monotonic curve with a tail towards low temperatures, forest modellers using FORET type models, a symmetric curve, and community ecologists a skewed response with a tail towards high temperatures. These assumptions are reviewed in relation to niche theory, and recent propositions concerning the continuum concept. Confusion exists between the different approaches over the shape of response curves to temperature. Distinctions need to be made between responses due to growth (physiological response), potential fitness (fundamental niche) and observed performance (realized niche). These types of response should be quantified and related to each other if process-models are to be tested for predictive success by reference to naturally occurring communities and temperature gradients. An example of a statistical method for quantifying the realized environmental niche response of a species to temperature is provided. It is based on generalised linear modelling (GLM) of presence/absence data on Eucalyptus fastigata for 8377 sites in southern New South Wales, Australia. Seven environmental variables or factors are considered: mean annual temperature, mean annual rainfall, mean monthly solar radiation, topographic position, rainfall seasonality, lithology, and soil nutrient status. The temperature response is modelled with a ß-function, logy = a + a log ( t - a ) + d log ( b - t), where t is temperature and letters are parameters. The probability of occurrence is shown to be a skewed function of mean annual temperature. Any process-models of climate change for vegetation incorporating temperature changes due to elevated CO2 must be capable of generating such realised environmental niche responses for species.

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