Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6-7 days and a basic reproductive number (R<sub>0</sub>) of 2.2-2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3-3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6-9 days, we calculated a median R<sub>0</sub> value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8-8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

Keywords

OutbreakBasic reproduction numberContact tracingPandemicCoronavirusQuarantineIncubation periodMedicineCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)VirologySevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Transmission (telecommunications)DemographyChinaPediatricsDiseaseBiologyGeographyEnvironmental healthInternal medicineInfectious disease (medical specialty)IncubationPopulationComputer science

MeSH Terms

Basic Reproduction NumberBetacoronavirusCOVID-19ChinaCoronavirus InfectionsDisease OutbreaksHumansModelsTheoreticalPandemicsPneumoniaViralSARS-CoV-2Travel

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Publication Info

Year
2020
Type
article
Volume
26
Issue
7
Pages
1470-1477
Citations
1615
Access
Closed

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Cite This

Steven Sanche, Yen Ting Lin, Chonggang Xu et al. (2020). High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2. Emerging infectious diseases , 26 (7) , 1470-1477. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200282

Identifiers

DOI
10.3201/eid2607.200282
PMID
32255761
PMCID
PMC7323562

Data Quality

Data completeness: 86%