Global Biodiversity Scenarios for the Year 2100

Abstract

Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.

Keywords

Affiliated Institutions

• University of California, Berkeley US
• University of Chile CL
• Arizona State University US
• Stanford University US
• Instituto de Ecología MX
• Environmental Defense Fund US
• New Mexico State University US
• Universidad de Buenos Aires AR
• Agricultural Plant Physiology and Ecology Research Institute AR
• University of Alaska Fairbanks US
• Lund University SE
• Duke University US
• National Institute for Public Health and the Environment NL
• Colorado State University US
• Technical University of Munich DE
• University of Notre Dame US
• Health Sciences and Nutrition AU

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