Forecast of geomagnetic storms in April–November 2024 based on cosmic ray monitoring results

Abstract

Since 2013, continuous monitoring of spatial-angular distribution of CRs for each hour of measurements has been carried out at SHICRA SB RAS, using data from the international neutron monitor database NMDB and the method of real-time global survey. For this purpose, nine parameters of the CR distribution are automatically calculated which result from the first two angular moments of the spatial distribution function of particles in interplanetary space. Our earlier studies have shown that before the onset of most geomagnetic storms with the amplitude of the geomagnetic activity Dst index lower than –50 nT there is a sharp increase in amplitudes of north-south components of CR distribution. This can serve as a predictor of the onset of geomagnetic disturbances with a lead time from several hours to 1–2 days. This paper presents the results of forecasting of geomagnetic storms with a Dst amplitude <–50 nT, observed in April–November 2024. It is also shown that the appearance of false predictors is associated with Earth’s entry into large-scale SW disturbances without geomagnetic effects.

Affiliated Institutions

• Yu.G. Shafer Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Aeronomy RU

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