Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and nonrandomized studies.

Abstract

A discussion of matching, randomization, random sampling, and other methods of controlling extraneous variation is presented. The objective is to specify the benefits of randomization in estimating causal effects of treatments. The basic conclusion is that randomization should be employed whenever possible but that the use of carefully controlled nonrandomized data to estimate causal effects is a reasonable and necessary procedure in many cases. Recent psychological and educational literature has included extensive criticism of the use of nonrandomized studies to estimate causal effects of treatments (e.g., Campbell & Erlebacher, 1970). The implication in much of this literature is that only properly randomized experiments can lead to useful estimates of causal effects. If taken as applying to all fields of study, this position is untenable. Since the extensive use of randomized experiments is limited to the last half century,8 and in fact is not used in much scientific investigation today,4 one is led to the conclusion that most scientific truths have been established without using randomized experiments. In addition, most of us successfully determine the causal effects of many of our everyday actions, even interpersonal behaviors, without the benefit of randomization. Even if the position that causal effects of treatments can only be well established from randomized experiments is taken as applying only to the social sciences in which

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Affiliated Institutions

• Educational Testing Service US

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