A Symmetric–Asymmetric Copula-Based GLMM for Energy Export and CO2 Emission Dynamics in Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia’s reliance on fossil-based energy exports continuously shapes the dynamics of CO2 emission and the broader energy environment relationship across regions. This study applies a symmetric–asymmetric copula-based generalized linear mixed model (copula–GLMM) to examine the joint dependence between energy exports and CO2 emissions across 34 provinces from 2010 to 2024. The proposed framework captures both balanced and tail-specific dependence structures, providing a deeper understanding of the evolving dynamics shaped by industrial concentration, policy interventions, and technological adoption. The analysis reveals a strong positive association, with the Clayton copula offering the best fit. Notably, lower-tail dependence shows that provinces with smaller export volumes face disproportionate emission risks, whereas regions with larger exports exhibit more stable outcomes due to renewable integration and improved efficiency. These findings challenge the notion that export growth inevitably leads to proportional emission increases. The study underscores the need for region-specific strategies rather than uniform national policies to advance sustainability goals and support Indonesia’s commitments to SGDs 7, 11, and 13, as well as the Paris Agreement.

Affiliated Institutions

• Badan Pusat Statistik ID
• Padjadjaran University ID

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