Detlef P. van Vuuren

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate ...

Evolution of anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of air pollutants at global and regional scales during the 1980–2010 period

The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs

This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are s...

Research priorities in land use and land‐cover change for the Earth system and integrated assessment modelling

Abstract This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysi...

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300

We present the greenhouse gas concentrations for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions beyond 2100, the Extended Concentration Pathways (ECPs). T...

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System...

Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs

On the basis of the IPCC B2, A1b and B1 baseline scenarios, mitigation scenarios were developed that stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at 650, 550 and 450 and – subject to...

Global and regional evolution of short-lived radiatively-active gases and aerosols in the Representative Concentration Pathways

Competition for land

A key challenge for humanity is how a future global population of 9 billion can all be fed healthily and sustainably. Here, we review how competition for land is influenced by o...

Downscaling drivers of global environmental change: Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels

Global environmental change scenarios typically distinguish between about 10–20 global regions. However, various studies need scenario information at a higher level of spatial d...

Temperature increase of 21st century mitigation scenarios

Estimates of 21st Century global-mean surface temperature increase have generally been based on scenarios that do not include climate policies. Newly developed multigas mitigati...

Long-Term Multi-Gas Scenarios to Stabilise Radiative Forcing - Exploring Costs and Benefits Within an Integrated Assessment Framework

This paper presents a set of multi-gas mitigation scenarios that aim for stabilisation of greenhouse gas radiative forcing in 2150 at levels from 3.7 to 5.3 W/m2. At the moment,...

Modeling Energy and Development: An Evaluation of Models and Concepts

Land-based mitigation in climate stabilization

The relationship between short-term emissions and long-term concentration targets